6 Expert Predictions for 2025’s Gambling Landscape
As featured in EGR and iGamingFuture, our CEO and co-founder, Kirsty Caldwell has put together 6 expert predictions based on probability, facts and gut instinct with almost 20 years' experience in the industry. Whether your strategy is complete or not, these may help guide and inform you on important aspects within the gambling industry.
GB Gambling Commission assessments are going to get a lot more targeted and we’re likely to see an increase in enforcement action as a result. The GC have long been known as a strict regulator which engages in very proactive supervision of its licensees. Throughout most of 2024 we’ve seen little in the way of enforcement action and operators could be forgiven for assuming that the noose was being loosened. However, just before Christmas the regulator released a raft of new guidance via the Betting and Gaming Council which told operators about changes to the regulatory assessment process going forward. The changes mean that a lot more information about customer samples will be gathered ahead of assessment, allowing the regulator to more carefully pick and choose the customers they review. It’s a slightly worrying potential prediction that this could result in a greater level of enforcement activity as the regulator looks to target reviews at the handling of ‘problem’ customers.
Growth of regulated gambling in the Middle East. As has now been quite well publicised, the U.A.E moved to regulate gambling in 2024. The new regulator has granted three licences, one for national lottery, one for a land based casino and one for a games provider. In November history was made when the first ever U.A.E, regulated lottery was launched across the Emirates. Now the ‘horse has bolted’ as it were, I predict that the biggest gambling companies in the world will be scrambling to obtain licences in the U.A.E and launch their operations. I also predict that other countries in the region will move quickly to regulate gambling to keep up pace with their forward thinking neighbours.
Increase in smaller, bespoke gambling conferences. I didn’t expect the move from London to Barcelona to affect ICE attendance, but certainly in terms of compliance circles, it feels like there’s a lot less people planning to attend next year. Whether this is a trigger or not, I have been involved in discussions with several different types of organisation which are planning to offer smaller, bespoke gambling conferences in 2025. Focusing on specific areas of the sector, there also seems to be a trend emerging for these events to be via invite only. A great example of a new bespoke event is the Gambling Business Group’s High Street Hub which is moving from ICE to create a new collaboration with Swan Events at the Amusement and Retail Entertainment Expo in April. I predict that this will be a trend we see play out over the next twelve months and beyond.
Decrease of grey markets may reduce the value of ‘rest of the world’ type licences. Over the past few years we’ve seen more and more countries move to regulate gambling, forcing operators to apply for local licences rather than relying on increasingly expensive ‘Rest of the World’ (ROW) licences to trade with international populations. Hot on the heels of the U.A.E, Brazil will launch its regulated sector in January 2025 and has been inundated with applications. New Zealand is looking to regulate remote gambling in 2026 and Finland is planning a transition from a monopoly to a modern licensing system in the same timeframe. These are just a few examples of the same trend which is happening worldwide. As the number of grey markets continues to decline, it stands to reason that the value of traditional ROW licences will decrease and I predict we’ll start to see a reduction of the number of operators applying for licences in jurisdictions such as Malta. A recent rise in smaller, cheaper and easier to maintain ROW licence options, such as Tobique, is also likely to compound this problem.
Expanded regulation and subsequent supervision of currently unregulated products. Although there hasn’t been much movement this year and it wasn’t covered in the Gambling Act review white paper, the loot box argument rumbles on. The new U.K. government recently published research outlining its concerns and the story across Europe shows a similar trend, with Belgium outlawing the sale of loot boxes and other countries such as the Netherlands and Austria attempting to follow suit. This year we’ve also seen a series of Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) cases being upheld against free to play games which have been deemed as misleading, due to implication that financial gain can be made by playing them. Lastly, in the U.K. white paper there was reference to cracking down on raffles which charge for entry, but which get around the need for a licence by providing a free to play route. I’m not sure how quickly this is going to evolve, but I predict we will continue to see increased focus on products which are akin to gambling but which are not yet regulated; the net is tightening.
Further consolidation of the U.K. casino sector . The U.K. casino sector has been waiting patiently for movement on the positive changes it was promised via the white paper, which in theory should help to alleviate commercial pressure which has been mounting since before the pandemic. Whilst the proposed measures were welcomed, many land based experts considered the measures to be ‘too little, too late’ and as we’ve now waited nearly 2 years since the white paper publication, with no tangible, land based focused changes being implemented, small casino groups are really feeling the pinch. I’m aware of sales of several casinos in the last twelve months and more than one closure. This is something I sadly predict we’ll see more of in 2025.
If you’d like to discuss any of these predictions and what that means for your business, contact us today.